Industry Data and Trend Predictions

7.19.2010

Fairdale prides itself on being one of those companies that always seems to have its finger on the pulse of the newest and greatest things in cycling. But how do we do it? The truth is there is no big secret. We carefully monitor and catalog all available data so that we can analyze and quantify the upcoming styles and trends.

Here’s and example. We are all aware of the startling growth in handlebar size, but what has caused it? Fairdale has discovered a directly inverse correlation between the size of a riders pants and the size of his handlebars.

If we look at the early to mid 90s (known as the JNCO era) we can see that along with outrageously large pant size there was also a huge drop in handlebar size. Bars cut down so narrow that brake levers couldn’t fit between the grip and the crossbar were not unusual.

As time progressed and the disturbing excessively tight pants fashion entered BMX in the late 2000′s we can see that handlebar size has grown immensely.

At the beginning of 2010 we can see that two things have happened. Most riders pants have literally become so tight that the lower portion of the pant’s legs have literally exploded from the pant body leaving nothing but the shredded remains hanging from the rider’s waist. Secondly huge handlebars that are actually banned in international BMX race competitions due to overly large size are springing up everywhere. Manufacturer’s keen to cash into this market are quickly producing the biggest bars they can. But what could possibly come next?

Thanks to Fairdale’s ability to accurately trend-map we can give you a glimpse into the future. Here is 2012′s style. Specially made BMX banana hammocks and fantastically large handle bars leading to even more nose wheelies tricks and less candybars.

The future is limitless, but with the proper data and analytical ability it is not unexpected. Fairdale is here for you.

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    • http://www.inkbrigade.com jamie

      ROTFLOL!

      • http://odysseybmx.com/fairdale Taj

        jesus jamie! Had to look that up…
        ROTFLOL – Rolling on the floor laughing out loud.
        Thanks

    • http://www.thedirective.com Micah

      Very nice Taj. You might appreciate some of these observations as well: http://www.mjbauer.com/amputate/seatheight_chart.jpg and http://www.mjbauer.com/amputate/tucknohander_diagram.jpg

      • http://odysseybmx.com/fairdale Taj

        Ha ha… totally on the same page with you. I like the underhander one!

    • http://Website block

      Taj, do you have a planned release date for the Fairdale banana hammock?

      • http://odysseybmx.com/fairdale Taj

        I’ve been testing out different materials and designs for the last few years. I’d really like it to be literal… like actually made out of banana peels. That would be both comfortable and green. Having trouble with the suppliers right now and screen printing.

    • http://Website colby

      what makes this so funny is how the last picture is set only 2 years from now… yikes! i love this blog.

    • http://Website Reed

      I question your regression results. I’ve run several sets of Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 regressions per set) of handlebar size against pant tightness, measured in thigh circumference. My predicted coefficient for pant tightness is 1.347, with a t-statistic of 9.542 and thus clearly statistically significant. Forecasting with my estimated coefficient gives a pant explosion moment in 1.5 years, but banana hammocks taking another full two years. I was not able to reproduce your exponential growth model. Although, estimating an ARMA(1,||4||) model of pant tightness to seasonally detrend the series, I was able to predict a banana hammock moment closer to your prediction. The Ljung-Box Q-Test confirmed that the residuals were white noise. So . . . yeah.

      The zine is pretty great by the way.

      • http://odysseybmx.com/fairdale Taj

        you have to take into account the unusually large BMXers who carried their JNCO/ Insane Clown Posse outfits into the middle 2000′s. It only a takes relatively few 50 inch leg opening to really skew the data. Once those last relics were finally discarded the data jumps dramatically to the smaller pant leg size thus creating the exponential trend resulting in nothing but a small condom for BMXer’s lower half by only 2013!

      • http://odysseybmx.com/fairdale Taj

        Oh, and thanks!

    • http://Website leandro

      haha nice this thing might happen in the future i never knew this will happen

    • http://Website jack

      wow, maybe with this will come the human evolution of huge arms so that we can actually reach the bars.

    • http://Website marty

      This takes the term apehangers to a whole new level! Great blog it always makes me laugh!

    • http://Website mark

      that is hilarious man and so true